Tuesday, the busiest election day of the Republican presidential primary season with nine states voting and a tenth (Alaska) beginning its 18-day caucus period. Tuesday may represent former Massachusetts Gob. Mitt Roomer’s last chance to sew up his party’s nomination decisively in advance of the Republican National Convention in August, as well as the possible last stands for his self-styled movement conservative opponents, former House Speaker Newt Ignoring and former Seen.
Rick Sanatorium of Pennsylvania. But this Super Tuesday may prove considerably less super,” or at least less momentous, than others in modern electoral memory. In 2008, a record-setting 24 states held presidential nomination contests on February 5, dubbed Super Duper Tuesday at the time for its sheer scale. On the Republican side, Super Duper Tuesday more or less ended the race in Arizona Seen. John Moccasin’s favor, confirming a result expected since Moccasin’s hard-fought January victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
The GOP map for Tuesday could as easily presage a Rooney sweep as a reignited three-way “brawl” heading into further showdowns through the spring. Rooney should do well in his adopted home state of Massachusetts as well as in neighboring Vermont and Virginia, where he and libertarian firebrand Rep. Ron Paul of Texas were the only candidates to file successfully. Sanatorium hopes for momentum restoring wins in Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee after a disappointing loss in Michigan.
Ignoring has set expectations a bit lower; claiming only that he hopes to win Georgia by a larger margin than Rooney won his native Michigan. Rooney is competitive in nearly all states that are polled, and a win in Ohio or a southern state like Tennessee can reassure his victory in the publican presidential election. After a three-state drubbing at the hands of Sanatorium on February 7 and a controversial victory over Paul in Maine, Rooney slowly and steadily returned to clear frontrunner’s status at the end of the month amid a narrow 41% to 38% triumph over Sanatorium in Michigan and an easy 20-point win in Arizona.
Rooney has worked concertedly to win over self-described conservatives in the past several months, going so far as to call himself “severely conservative,” but even in Michigan, failed to close that sale. If Rooney wins Ohio, and erodes Sanatorium’s natural advantages with comparatively blue-collar and conservative primary voters, he may begin to seem unstoppable. Ohio’s Republican electorate should be similar to Michigan, though perhaps a tad more conservative.
Rooney can expect good margins in the upscale suburbs of Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Columbus, but may struggle in the Appalachia-tinged eastern region of Ohio. A Sanatorium win in Ohio would revive past narratives of conservative discontent with Roomer’s candidacy and make Michigan seem a home state fluke; and the South remains decidedly hostile territory for the commonly regarded frontrunner’s. Can I Eat By earl 2