And other factors that make the human efforts more reliable: a Tate of law, good governance, good political situation and finance control. Talking about education, it makes possible the investigation in the technology research field and allows the individuals more adaptable to the world technology advancement. But even here quantity of years of schooling, along with the quality of the teaching process are very important for measuring the economic growth.
PISA (Programmer for International Student Assessment) is an international study that evaluate education systems across the world by testing the skills and knowledge of 1 5-year-old students n certain countries in reading, math’s and scientific literacy. Quantity of schooling must be saw as a good but not perfect indicator for quality of education. For reference, most of the top scoring countries on PISA are in Asia. State of Law and a good political situation, are others factors with such importance to discuss, but they can be controversial.
The opportunity for entrepreneurs to create and for civil society to have freedom of speech, makes a sine-qua-non path for the success of democratic systems that lead to economic growth and improvement. Besides that, it provides sees chances to corruption and oligarchies with high concentration of wealth. On the other hands, there are countries that don ‘t practice the traditional western representative democracy, I ‘m talking of China, Vietnam, and Russia, with a good state of law. In other regions as Latin America and Africa, even the multiparty system, there are high levels of corruption.
Those economies with bad governance, civil wars and low education will remain stuck in this low-income trap. This has been the position a number of African nations have found themselves in for so long. As economies improve and technology become more sophisticated, the economic growth measures will be each time less and less amazing, because they will have difficulties to increase the economic level reached. The initial years of development would be enough with taking essential and proven steps as opening themselves up and adapt to the world’s existing technologies.
When those initial steps are completed, countries will need to have self-creativeness and start to apply policies according national resources and strategies with technology available with the national potential. That is when some economies get stuck at the same point and are unable to advance taking some changes in economic strategies. In the case of countries like China and India, there is an important remark to make. Despite the high levels of economic growth, with numbers that can lead them to the highest spots on the global list of world economies, they are needed of basic infrastructure in most of their territory.
Keeping the visible economic growth in the most important cities, but with a countryside with the highest levels of poverty and underdevelopment. We have seen some factors bout why is so important the quality of the working population, now let’s analyze the quantity of workers as another important factor for economic growth. In this field, there are two effects. The first and most obvious, as more people you have in the factories, is easier to produce more goods and services when you have more employees or people on the production line.
And as more working population a state have, there are more people paying taxes. 2. The rise of BRICKS and the role of 6-7 The BRICKS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could surpass the -7 countries in 2017 with the Purchase Power Parity (APP). That could happened keeping in mind the 6-7 countries have been slower than BRICKS to recover from the economic crisis of 2010, while the developing countries have been insulated from the crisis with an astonishing speed.
That breach between the BRICKS and G-7 countries is projected to continue. The BRICKS countries could be more or less 75% larger than the G-7 countries by the end of 2050 in APP terms. The growth paths of the BRICKS and the G-7 in Market Exchange Rates (MERE) terms, looks similar but the developing countries ill overtake the developed countries in 2030, instead of 2017. This situation is due that price levels in the BRICKS countries are below those developed economies when using current market exchange rates.
Despite the economic researches, this phenomenon according to experiences in the Asian Tigers during asses to asses, suggest that that the Market Exchange Rates, tends to growth as the Purchase Power Parity (APP) does. This could happened by two factors. Nominal Exchange Rate appreciation, or through price inflation in the developing countries. Occurring that always is possible long-run real currency appreciation. Scholars and economics concur according past experiences. 3. The role of China, US, EX. and India as world economies.
In the case of China, is highly probable to meet the expected 7% of economic growth rate during the decade. But as was mentioned before, as the economy gets mature the economic growth will decelerate, occurring this during the period 2021-2050. Its high aged population and the rising cost of labor, it appear to occur in China the same as in the United States: the economy would transit from being an export- oriented economy to be a consumption driven economy. Besides that, foreign impassion are going to experiment a change in the way business is done in the region.
They will leave China, taking away many off-shored Jobs toward other cheaper economies such as Viet-Name, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. And the Chinese exporters will find interest of consumer in quality instead of pricing for their exportation to United States and European Union. Mexico and Indonesia could be amongst the top 10 largest economies by 2050 in terms of Peps. Russia could overtake Germany before 2030 as the largest European economy, to be overtaken after by Brazil in global rankings by 2050.
In Africa, Nigeria is projected to move into the top 20 by 2050. In Asia, Vietnam is expected to be among the 20 largest economies, but Malaysia will remain out of the list due its relative small population, note the quantity of working population as a factor for the economic growth. In the case of the European Union, looking at it with an optimistic point of view to its integration in a multipart world. In that context, the US dollar (USED) would remain a the global divas by 2050, despite the strength of other currencies as Euro, China’s remain or Sterling Pound.
European researches conclude that there are two options for the future of the global currency. The first and less probable, is the adoption of one international currency, v. Gar. As the Special Drawing Rights (SAD) managed by MIFF. The second option, and more probable, is the setting of a third Asian currency, used among the Dollar and the Euro for international transactions. The most realistic scenario is the creation of a basket of Asian currencies, used not a primary currency in each country, but as a secondary parallel currency for trade.
In Latin America is realistic this scenario with the creation of SECURE as Regional Unique Compensation System. And these systems could guide toward a common future currency as the Euro. The globalization and the integration of the developing states of Asia and Latin America into the global markets, dropping transportation and communication prices, and on-going trade and venture liberalizing in the developing countries compromise new markets and prospects for the European economy.
The development of globalization has progressively caused in firmly interconnected worldwide cost chains. Development of global value chains not only led to competence improvements and a geographic division of manufacture processes by reduction of modules in diverse places all over the world but also stimulated some of the significant know-how and services into these sites. In this background, the employment tendencies by level of qualification display that the “talent concentration” of professions in Europe has been growing in latest years and is probable to last in the future years.
Keeping that in mind, the amount of high skilled employments is likely to rise to over a third by 2020, while the percentage of occupations hiring less qualified people is projected to fall to 15%. The geographic tatters of manufacture are shifting in the wake of a further knowledge-intensive economy. Then, the production patterns are moving due to the modification of client requirements.
More well-versed clients frequently use a pressure on corporations and suppliers of services to provide more and more tailored goods for more varied niches in the international market landscape. Results mixing goods and services are demanded. The methodology of one corporation and legal entity creating the lion’s share of advanced industrial and service production is being altered by new and ore flexible practices of value creation and organization of information undertakings, v. R. , by means of ventures, with crowds of labor force and self-starting entrepreneurs functioning organized loosely knit on a transitory basis to come up with innovative goods and solutions. This is going to be a deeply transformation of the business configuration. A key omnipresent feature of the change in the way added-value is produced in the service areas – to support any kind of business, including industry, agriculture, environment, urban services etc. Is the active improvement of information bases and the usage of information. Europe will participate in this situation to a change in the social logic of manufacture, whereby the ancient logic (division of labor, functional organizations, hierarchy and standardization) is substituted by the new logic of distribution of information in networks and groups, with an emphasis on fundamental capabilities, nonstop education, absorptive volumes, and modernization.
Whereas these tendencies might lead to new chances for advanced, very experienced and entrepreneurial prepared individuals, these changes to the scheme of manufacture and new forms of association comparable to mass sourcing, may bring about total new challenges as to the transformation of social security organisms. An important issue embedded in this matter is the end of intellectual property (P).
With the development of the inventive commons and open source movements, main mechanisms of business and institutional information will progressively be public without control and for some, result in additional drop of copyright and weaker patents. Maybe the best movement in the field of science and technology is the permanent information and communications revolution and its consequences. The fastest computers perform trillions of processes per second at time of writing with strong signs that Moor’s law will support up to 2020+.
If persistent in the upcoming, the computers will have reached the computational power comparable to one and possibly all human brains before 2050. Similar to the computational power, new algorithms and broad techniques of using this power will be established. Decisions and their significances will progressively be simulated previously being taken, recognizing possibilities and providing decision support structures to start with.
Furthermore, information technology, social media and virtual reality will infer fundamental alterations to how crowds think, execute policies, compete, distract and instruct themselves. This can change the worldviews of the societies. Reputable teaching systems that developed in the industrialization era will gradually fight to manage with the learning economy. By 2030 severe variations may have happened in the method information is defined, saved, read, acquired and recognized. Today’s schools and universities may have gone extinct.
Energy efficient technologies will become available, and even roughhouses in alternative forms of energy that reduces dependency on hydrocarbons may be likely by 2050, though their effect on the overall energy system might be only gradual. One of the much discussed, but yet to be realized, dreams of architects, engineers and progressive developers is the idea of the zero-waste, zero- energy building – one which, when in use, has zero net energy consumption and zero carbon emissions.
As operation accounts for 85% of the total whole-life energy consumption of a building and buildings account for the majority of global CA emissions, this would be an enormous step forward. With the major technological advances taking places, increased integration of control systems and, in some markets, regulation for the roll of smart meter systems, all the ingredients for the high-tech option are falling into place. With several countries such as South Korea taking the lead, smart homes that control energy, ventilation, communication services and so on are starting to be built.
A critical element in all this is the role of smart meters and grids. The nature of transport and energy infrastructure will change with the increasing use of smart technologies. For instance, instead of an increasing grid for transport, less roads and rail infrastructure will become necessary with higher precision transport systems and automatic breaking systems. Infrastructure will be accompanied by pay-as-you-use systems and pressure on government for new transport infrastructure building will decrease.
Smart grids will reduce the need to build new centralized power plants. Local infrastructure upgrading (energy distribution grids, urban transport, and other urban infrastructure) is another key issue, especially in developing countries. The prevailing approach to finance infrastructure needs is to devolve to the business sector the provision of public services and infrastructures. But this is also generating great controversies. An alternative option might be a growing demand for the solicitation and nationalization of public goods, services and infrastructures.
While technologies such as air travel and telecommunications transformed economies in the 20th century, growth is also now being driven increasingly by other key enabling technologies, such as CEO, Anna, bio and info-technologies. Alongside the latter info- technologies – and often convergent and integrated with those – there are Anna- cosmologies and bio-technologies that will help Europe to address a number of societal challenges such as an ageing population, the effects of climate change, and reduced availability of resources.